After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
India's fuel sales fell in the first half of April as a record rise in prices in a short 16-day period dented demand, preliminary industry data showed on Saturday. Petrol sales fell almost 10 per cent in the first half of April when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand slid 15.6 per cent. Even cooking gas LPG, which had consistently shown growth even during the pandemic period, saw a 1.7 per cent month-on-month fall in consumption during April 1-15.
Diesel likely to get cheaper in New Delhi
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Traders said sentiments remained weak due to fall in demand from jewellers and retailers amidst gold retreating in global markets.
This is the second straight increase in ATF price this month. Rates were hiked by a record 56.5 per cent (Rs 12,126.75 per kl) on June 1. Simultaneously, petrol and diesel prices were hiked for the 10th day in a row.
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
Falling oil rates have made rigs available for hire at a cheaper rate. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation planned to foray into building rigs in June 2008 owing to its short supply as crude oil prices zoomed northwards.
Dealers expect prices to fall further, owing to an impending rate hike in the US
The Union government has collected Rs 94,181 crore through levy of excise duty on petrol and diesel in the first three months of the current fiscal on the back of a record tax on fuel that yielded 88 per cent higher revenue the previous financial year, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. Excise duty on petrol was hiked from Rs 19.98 per litre to Rs 32.9 last year to recoup gain arising from international oil prices plunging to multi-year low as pandemic gulped demand. The same on diesel was raised to Rs 31.8 from Rs 15.83 a litre, according to a written reply by Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli in the Lok Sabha. This led to excise collections on petrol and diesel jumping to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021), from Rs 1.78 lakh crore a year back, he said.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
International oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, but petrol and diesel prices in India continue to be on freeze and are expected to rise once assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh end. Amid fears of supplies being disrupted because of Russian aggression, the price of futures contract for Brent crude oil with April delivery on London's ICE rose by 4.18 per cent to $99.38 per barrel on Tuesday morning, before paring some gains to settle just above $98. The last time Brent exceeded $99 per barrel was in September 2014. Russia makes up for a third of Europe's natural gas and about 10 per cent of global oil production.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Monday reported a 5 per cent fall in the net profit for the July-September quarter, as weak oil refining and petrochemical business hurt operational performance.
In December 2010, the price of the fuel in Delhi was Rs 45,240 a kilolitre.
Upstream firms have a tremendous financial pressure due to selling crude at subsidised rates to oil marketing firms.
In nine hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 4.87 a litre.
The nation is looking at using lower rig rates and oil field services that are likely to result from fall in international oil prices and global recession to comb the unexplored areas, so that its import dependence could be cut. So far, 206 blocks have been awarded under seven rounds of bidding under the New Exploration Licensing Policy.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
The oil crisis could not have come at a worse time for the Modi government as its tax collection has fallen short of its 2020-2021 target by Rs 5.2 lakh crore.
Oil subsidies to fall 44% in FY15.
Sri Lanka stays with you not just in memory, but gently reminds you what a society can achieve when heart and heritage guide the way.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
Just as very high oil prices looked an anomaly in a sluggish world, so now do record high equities.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 77.28 per litre from Rs 76.73, while diesel rates were increased to Rs 75.79 a litre from Rs 75.19, according to a price notification from State oil marketing companies. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending on the incidence of local sales tax or VAT.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
A price reduction may be considered if crude oil falls to $61 per barrel, he said. The basket of crude oil India buys was at this year's lowest of $68.81 per barrel. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are currently losing about Rs 280 crore (Rs 2.8 billion) per day on sale of petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene as government has not allowed them to align retail prices with cost of production.
Low oil prices drove the growth in states' share faster than expected, says Abhishek Waghmare.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday ruled out a cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel to ease prices, which have touched an all-time high, saying payments in lieu of past subsidised fuel pose limitations. Petrol and diesel as well as cooking gas and kerosene were sold at subsidised rates during the previous Congress-led UPA government. Instead of paying for the subsidy to bring parity between the artificially suppressed retail selling price and the cost that had soared because of international rates crossing $100 per barrel, the then government issued oil bonds totalling Rs 1.34 lakh crore to the state-fuel retailers. These oil bonds and the interest thereon are being paid now.
The FAO's price index, which measures monthly price changes for a basket of grains, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 207.8 points last month as compared with 214.6 points in May 2013, falling nearly 3.2 per cent.
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) reported a 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in consolidated revenue to Rs 3,670 crore. Organic revenue growth in constant currency was up 14 per cent Y-o-Y. Consolidated operating profit was up 5 per cent to Rs 760 crore, profit before tax grew 10 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 710 crore, and adjusted net profit grew 12 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 490 crore.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
'I have no problems with the finance ministry or with state governments treating petrol pump prices as the last resort for meeting their ambitious spending targets with very limited revenue resources.' 'But let's do away with this smokescreen of free pricing of petrol and diesel and go back to administered pricing regime,' says Dr Sudhir Bisht.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
